Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
