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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still