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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd